Those who heeded the advice of National Bank of Romania (NBR) Governor Mugur Isarescu and placed their bets on the domestic currency early in the year have logged hefty gains. On the other hand, for the second month in a row, in February, those that chose to invest in foreign currency were disappointed.
After January saw the single European currency lose 1.2% to the ROL, February brought another drop for the euro, which went down 1.5%. The ROL has gained almost 2.7% against the euro since the beginning of the year, so that investments in the European currency rather brought losses instead of the expected gains.
After a slight recovery, the US dollar also took a descending trend, having dropped almost 1.6% in absolute value (more than 500 ROL).
While the dollar fans are more or less disappointed with the evolution of the ROL/USD exchange rate, as they have grown accustomed with large fluctuations ever since last year, the europhiles are taking it harder, since the blow was unexpected. In the past two years, the single European currency had done nothing but soar: almost 25% in 2002 and another 18% in 2003, which catapulted the euro to the star status among investment options. Now, as the central bank exerts tighter control over the ROL/EUR exchange rate evolution, things may change. The high volatility of the EUR/USD exchange rate that may occur on the international markets will reverberate even more strongly through the fluctuations of the ROL/USD exchange rate. Implicitly, the risk takers may rake in big money speculating on the US currency.
Under the circumstances, it is obvious that the ROL remains the sole sure bet. In fact, the NBR Governor said so several weeks ago. "What I can tell you is that I do not foresee a period of certainty, of clear trends for the EUR/USD exchange rate. I believe the ROL remains the sole certainty, especially for savings." Also, banking deposits, for which rates are still high, are one of the safe options for those that hold foreign currency. Last month, yields for deposits in ROL hovered around 1.23-1.26%, much higher than any other investments'. oana.nuta@zf.ro
