Electricity, natural gas and fuel consumption was seriouslydented last year, after years of growth that overlapped with thepositive upward trend of the entire economy. For 2010, estimatesare very prudent, with stagnating sales against 2009 as thebest-case scenario for many players. For others, the worst is yetto come.
While in the early 2009 analysts believed the energy sectorwould be little harmed by the crisis, the falling consumption, theplunge registered in certain industrial branches have marked somemarkets turning over billions of euros annually and employing tensof thousand people.
Electricity consumption, which started being seen as a gauge ofthe state of economy, in 2009 shrank by around 10% after years ofuninterrupted growth. As regards natural gas, consumption wasaround 20% lower. The fuel market in its turn fully felt theproblems on the construction market, the extremely difficultsituation transport firms coped with, and sold volumes dropped byaround 5-10% last year. Under the circumstances, more than 10,000people who worked in energy, oil and gas lost their jobs in thewake of massive restructurings.
Yet, most players are more optimistic about 2010, particularlywith regard to a halt in consumption decline.
Thus, Transgaz representatives believe that in 2010 they willmanage to transmit around 10% more gas through pipelines comparedwith 2009, but still less than in 2008.
As regards fuel consumption, market players have divergentopinions. Players such as MOL Romania or Rompetrol believe fuelsales will be almost flat from last year, with the market due torebound on the medium term. Petrom, the biggest domestic companyand the only oil and gas producer in Romania, believes, though,that on the medium and long term the penetration of greentechnologies will certainly eat into the market of conventionalfuel.
As regards electricity, players are cautious: consumptionincreases will be moderate ones.
