After the sometimes hallucinating increases that were registered in 2002, what more can one ask from the Stock Exchange this year? Nothing as spectacular, but certainly more than the banking deposits, the T-bills or the foreign exchange rate increases will provide, the brokers say.
Issued several days after the end of the Stock Exchange's best post-war year, the 2003 forecasts can only be cautious. Following the doubling or tripling of the blue chips' prices, no one ventures to predict last year's history repeating.
Still, perhaps for the first time in the past few years, the brokers are extremely confident they will be able to offer their clients much higher gains than the money market will.
Most market players are betting on an overall Stock Exchange increase of 30%-50% and are confident that investments will continue to shift to the capital market due to the decline in the banking and T-bills interests.
"I think this year will see Romanian investors continuing to migrate to the Stock Exchange. The 14% inflationary target will most likely be attained, while the banking interests will reach 12%. Under the circumstances, many medium and large investors will choose to place their money on the Stock Exchange, in spite of the higher risk, rather than to get a negative interest by depositing it," Rares Nilas, chairman of Transilvania Capital Invest securities firm says.
Besides the weak competition from the money market, the economic outlook of the main listed companies also lights up the brokers' enthusiasm.
"Last year clearly showed most of the listed companies are starting to improve their financial performance. If this trend is followed by several major floatations, the Stock Exchange will have no reason to go down," said Valentin Ionescu, Euro Invest Vision chief operating officer. He added: "The major shares will definitely keep going up, while those less liquid will surely provide opportunities for short-term gains. In conclusion, I recommend investors to place 60%-70% of the money set aside for the Stock Exchange in shares such as Petrom, Banca Transilvania, Antibiotice or Impact and have the rest ready for the speculation opportunities. As for the major shares, I expect Petrom to be the most volatile. I see an overall Stock Exchange growth of 30%-50%."
Grigore Chis, from SIVM Broker Cluj says, "I do not believe the investment portfolio will radically change this year, because few shares are liquid enough to be worthy of consideration. I am still betting on the Banca Romana pentru Dezvoltare (Romanian Development Bank - BRD), SNP Petrom and the SIFs (financial investment companies) and I think Antibiotice Iasi could do well, too. We are also expecting the listing of T-bills on the Stock Exchange in order to have more investment options available. All in all, I think the overall BSE increase will go beyond 50%."
